Predicting Quarantine Failure Rates
نویسنده
چکیده
Preemptive quarantine through contact-tracing effectively controls emerging infectious diseases. Occasionally this quarantine fails, however, and infected persons are released. The probability of quarantine failure is typically estimated from disease-specific data. Here a simple, exact estimate of the failure rate is derived that does not depend on disease-specific parameters. This estimate is universally applicable to all infectious diseases.
منابع مشابه
Determinants for the successful establishment of exotic ants in New Zealand
Biological invasions can dramatically alter ecosystems. An ability to predict the establishment success for exotic species is important for biosecurity and conservation purposes. I examine the exotic New Zealand ant fauna for characteristics that predict or determine an exotic species’ ability to establish. Quarantine records show interceptions of 66 ant species: 17 of which have established, 4...
متن کاملThe Mediterranean Fruit Fly and the United States: Is the Probit 9 Level of Quarantine Security Efficient?
Cold treatment periods, and associated levels of quarantine security, that maximize net US welfare under USDA’s current medfly detection and control program are examined using a deterministic bioeconomic optimization model. As anticipated, the efficient level of quarantine security is shown to increase with indices of medfly pressure (initial infestation rates) in areas in which the medfly is k...
متن کاملProtective Effect of Maritime Quarantine in South Pacific Jurisdictions, 1918–19 Influenza Pandemic
We reviewed mortality data of the 1918-19 influenza pandemic for 11 South Pacific Island jurisdictions. Four of these appear to have successfully delayed or excluded the arrival of pandemic influenza by imposing strict maritime quarantine. They also experienced lower excess death rates than the other jurisdictions that did not apply quarantine measures.
متن کاملPulmonary Rehabilitation, a Recommendation for People in the Quarantine of COVID-19
At the end of 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, and infected over 4 million people around the world. Individuals with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have an influenza-like illness and respiratory tract infections. We can categorize patients in three main groups: asymptomatic infected cases, patients with mild upper res...
متن کاملRenaissance model of an epidemic with quarantine.
Quarantine is one possible solution to limit the propagation of an emerging infectious disease. Typically, infected individuals are removed from the population by avoiding physical contact with healthy individuals. A key factor for the success of a quarantine strategy is the carrying capacity of the facility. This is often a known parameter, while other parameters such as those defining the pop...
متن کامل